Sarah Palin 2012: 5 Reasons Why She?s Not Running (But Won?t Say It)
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What's up next for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin regarding the 2012 presidential election?
Well, if you're thinking that Sarah Palin will soon join the field of Republican hopefuls seeking the party's nod to challenge President Barack Obama, think again.
More than likely, the not-running-but-I-may-be-running-I-haven't-decided-whether-to-run Palin will remain in precisely that status.
Here's why -- from least to most important -- Palin is not running, but won't announce, for a long time, that she's not running,
5. "Palin Inc." If and as soon as Gov. Palin said she's not running, the stock value or marketing value of "Palin Inc." would drop substantially.
Speaking fees, other future royalties, and related perks are considerably higher for a public figure who may obtain a major political party's nomination for the U.S. presidency. Media coverage also would decrease, and that can affect book sales, hence from a brand-value standpoint, don't expect Palin to announce that she's not running until she absolutely has to.
4. Status in the Tea Party faction. By not announcing that she's not running, Palin remains the de-facto leader -- or at least the co-leader along with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. -- of the Tea Party faction of the Republican Party.
As soon as Palin announces that she's not running, again, there would be an inevitable loyalty transfer by least some Tea Party voters from Palin to Bachmann, who is running for the 2012 Republican nomination.
3. Leverage over the 2012 GOP nominee. By extension, by not announcing that she's not running, Palin retains leverage over Tea Party faction delegates to the 2012 Republican Party Convention.
That leverage could prove to be pivotal, if, in the unlikely event one of the curent Republican candidates does not secure a majority of the delegates before the convention in Tampa, Fla., in September, and the result is a brokered convention.
Also, even if a Republican secures a majority of the delegates (likely), Palin could still threaten to recommend that her Tea Party delegates not apportioned by popular primaries not support the presumptive Republican Party nominee until Palin gets a plum or two. These could include: changes in the party's platform, a commitment by the nominee to support any one or several Tea Party faction causes (commitment to an amendment to the U.S. Constitution calling for a balanced budget, a no tax increase pledge, or some other commitment to cut federal spending).
Brokered convention or not, Palin wants to hold influence over Tea Party delegates to the 2012 Republican convention certainly through the convention's end.
2. Jockey for cabinet post, or more. By not announcing that she's not running, Palin can also threaten to recommend that her Tea Party delegates not support the presumptive Republican Party nominee until she is guaranteed a U.S. Cabinet post in any Republican administration or some other plum. Palin may even attempt to bargain for a vice presidential nomination from the presumptive 2012 Republican nominee.
1. 2012 GOP election math. Finally, the main reason Palin will not announce that she's not running is electoral. Palin, at this stage, only has a slight chance of securing the GOP nod, hence a Palin-GOP run won't occur.
Even more significant, Palin will not run as a third-party candidate, a la former Alabama Gov. George Wallace or business executive Ross Perot, as the Tea Party's nominee, or even on an unaffiliated ticket, such as a "Palin Party" or "One America" party, and the reason is obvious enough: A third-party run would divide or at least fracture the conservative vote, making it much more likely that President Obama would win re-election.
Above all, Palin does not want to splinter the conservative vote.
Palin-tology
Therefore, look for Palin to maintain her current "haven't decided" status. Moreover, in the history of modern U.S. presidential campaigns, Palin may set the record for the longest "haven't decided" of any potential presidential candidate.
From Palin's standpoint, her best move is to not make one.
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I'll believe corporations are persons when Texas executes one.: LBJ's Ghost
It's national campaign stat-porn season again! Number muncher Nate Silver posted some of his magic maps this morning. These maps explain how Sarah Palin could be the 2012 Republican nominee for President!
That reddish line from the northwest through the deep South presents Palin's best shot at the nomination, according to Silver. Basically she has to win either Iowa or South Carolina (or both!) in order to have a shot. But she does well with rural, non-college educated voters who care about terror and God. And that's an important part of the GOP base!
But the most important part of the GOP base is rich people who don't want to pay taxes. And they will ensure that the nominee is Mitt Romney. He has the organization and the money and, most importantly, he came in second in 2008. That's how the Republican nomination process works.
Huckabee has an outside chance, but for some reason he is intensely hated by many of the GOP money people. Pawlenty is increasingly hated in his home state of Minnesota, but he might end up the least offensive "normal guy" backup choice.
Meanwhile, Sarah Palin's organization is a joke.
Pam Pryor, a former RNC senior adviser, leads Palin's political action committee and is orchestrating her outreach to social conservatives. Randy Scheunenmann remains her policy maestro, with informal assistance from his Orion Strategies colleague Michael Goldfarb, the former Weekly Standard writer and McCain campaign rapid responder. (Goldfarb did not return an e-mail seeking comment about his future in Palin's world.) Fred Malek is perhaps the single Washington establishment figure that Palin turns to.
Michael Goldfarb is a liability. Pam Pryor is an experienced evangelical adviser to Republicans but she hasn't ever worked for a major candidate. Scheunenmann?one of Ahmad Chalabi's men in Washington and lobbyist for the Republic of Georgia?was nearly fired from the McCain campaign (along with Goldfarb) for undermining and backstabbing. Fred Malek once counted Jews in the Department of Labor for Richard Nixon.
As Dave Weigel pointed out, Huckbaee, Pawlenty, and Romney have bigger and better teams in place.
Palin's PAC can raise substantial amounts of money without much trouble, thanks to her high profile and intense fanbase, but they're already famous for spending more money on her book than they did on candidates and their most recent fundraising letter has already been mocked for a grammatical error.
And, obviously, Palin could surround herself with trained and experienced professionals, but she hates trained and experienced professionals, and the moral of her own stupid book is that she chafes at attempts to make her act like a grown-up. She could very well end up with the Republican nomination, but that would take a series of fluke victories and lucky breaks, and those have not traditionally been deciding factors in the GOP nomination process.
But she is definitely kooky enough to give it a go, for which we should all be thankful. Because it will be hilarious.
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I'll believe corporations are persons when Texas executes one.: LBJ's Ghost
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