When do you think Rochester will receive its first measurable snowfall of the season?
News 10 NBC, with data from the National Weather Service in Buffalo, has looked back over the last ten years of records.
Only twice in those ten years has at least one-tenth (0.1") inch of snow fallen in Rochester in October, that being the measuring stick the National Weather Service uses to determine the first snowfall.
The dates of the first measurable snowfall in Rochester:
The National Weather Service says the *average* date of first measurable snowfall in Rochester, going back to 1926, is Nov. 8.
Higher elevations south of Rochester typically receive measurable snow when the immediate Rochester area might get rain.
Looking back a year, following are excerpts from the National Weather Service monthly weather summary for Rochester for October 2009, November 2009, and December 2009..
October:
Gloomy and wet with a warm finish. October started cool and abnormally cloudly with light synoptic rain across the Rochester region for many of the first 19 days of the month. Parts of the metro region saw their first snowflakes of the season mid month before a pattern shift with warmer temperatures closing out the month.
A cold northeasterly flow across Lake Ontario brought a few flakes of snow to the Rochester area on the morning of the 14th. Two days later, low pressure tracked from the southern Ohio Valley to the middle atlantic states and brought additional snow to the region on the 16th. A trace of snow fell at the Rochester airport, while locations to the south saw measurable snow of an inch or two.
November:
Comfortable quiet month with a lack of snow. Several days in November had a trace of snowfall though none of this snow was measurable. With measurable snow falling several hours after November ended. The 237 consecutive days from April 8 to November 30 without measurable snow was the third longest stretch for Rochester. This was the fourth November in 126 years with either none or just a trace of snowfall.
December:
A typical December for western New York. The mild snowless streak which lasted through all of November came to an abrupt halt with the season's first measurable snowfall just a few hours into the new month on the 1st. December then held true to form with an abundance of cloudiness and precipitation. Overall, the month averaged out a bit on the cold side. Fairly wet and with nearly normal snowfall.
The average temperature of 27.9 was about 1.5 degrees below normal. There were no real extremes and no records during the month, but there were several pattern changes from mild to cold as is usually the case. The mildest periods came during the month's first half, while the second half, aside from a couple days around Christmas, was colder and even included a nine day stretch of sub freezing temperatures from December 16-24. Precipitation was a bit above normal at 2.95 inches. Much of this fell in two heavy rainfalls on December 9 and late on Christmas Day. The rest of the precipitation fell as snow, which at 25.4 inches, was just a bit above the normal of 22.0 inches.
The National Weather Service says Rochester officially averages about 100 inches of snowfall every winter season.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with snow developing toward daybreak. Accumulation an inch or less. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 mph or less...becoming northeast 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.
Wednesday
Snow. Accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Colder with highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
I love the snow.... so if there is more, I am fine with that. My dad is stealing the Rubi tomorrow, and I might be heading over to the dealership tomorrow with my mom and her WK2 to see if they can get the Jeep to stop shutting off our phones when they connect. I hope I get to drive in some snow, but highly doubt it.
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